My friends,

It’s a mixed bag of news.  

There are several reasons for optimism, the tightening of the polls and an email from the McCain-Palin Campaign.

First the polls: here’s today’s TIPP poll showing TIPP: OBAMA 46.7%... MCCAIN 44.6%... NOT SURE 8.7%...  McCain has gained 2.4% and with 8.7% undecided this race is still there for McCain to win. www.tipponline.com/

Before sharing an email from the Rick Davis campaign manager for the McCain-Palin campaign, I feel compelled to bring up Obama’s recent call to create a Civilian National Security Force. 

To quote Obama directly “we cannot continue to rely only our our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we have set, we’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well funded”.  Don’t believe me, here’s the link www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s

There is absolutely no justification that can benignly explain this away.  Obama has yet to offer any explanation of this statement.  So, be scared, very scared!  I can only think of how Hitler and Peron came to power.   The style, substance and content of Obama's fiery rhetoric is chillingly similar to the rants of previous self appointed artists of change: Juan Peron and Adolf Hitler.  To ignore history and say it can’t happen here, only invites it to happen.

Now for a little optimism: The McCain Palin campaign is cautiously optimistic.  Here’s the email courtesy of a friend in AZ….  It’s from Rick Davis campaign manager for McCain-Palin.

From: "Rick Davis, McCain-Palin Campaign" <rickdavis@johnmccain.com>

To: <prubel@cox.net> Subject: The State of the Campaign Date: Fri, 31 Oct 

2008 20:36:15 -0400 (EDT)

To:    Interested Parties From:    Rick Davis, Campaign Manager Date:    

October 31, 2008 RE:    The Final Push

The State of the Campaign

If your television is tuned to cable news as frequently as ours are here at 

campaign headquarters, you have seen the pundits say John McCain and his 

campaign are done. And, if you've followed this race since the beginning, 

this is clearly a song you've heard before. I wanted to take some time today 

to give you some insight on the state of the race as we see it.

An AP poll released this morning revealed a very telling fact: ONE out of 

every SEVEN voters is undecided. That means, if 130 million voters turn out 

on Tuesday, 18.5 million of them have yet to make up their mind. With that 

many votes on the table and the tremendous movement we've seen in this race, 

I believe we are in a very competitive campaign.

Here's why:

All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a significant 

narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain's typical pattern, he is closing 

strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race is winnable, and if 

the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on 

Election Night. National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain 

trailing by double-digit margins - but by the middle of this week, we were 

within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the 

Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this 

week.

State Polls:

Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. 

We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is 

why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to 

stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern 

states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column.

The Southwest - It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest 

have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, 

New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome 

challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these 

states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and 

you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough 

voters to perform within the margin of error - putting these states within 

reach.

Colorado - Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during 

the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. 

However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our 

poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.

Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania 

will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral 

votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator 

McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key 

battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up 

our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong 

and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our 

candidate. Obama campaign faces tremendous structural challenges in the 

final days of this campaign Obama has a challenge hitting 50%: Barack Obama 

has not reached the 50% threshold in almost any the battleground state. He 

consistently is performing in the 45-48% range. When we look closely at the 

primary votes, we see a history of a candidate whose Election Day 

performance is often at or behind his final polling numbers. If this is 

true, our surge will leave Obama with even or under 50% of the vote on 

Election Day.

Early Vote: The Obama campaign has promised that their early vote and 

absentee efforts will change the composition of the electorate. They have 

sold the press on a story that first time voters will turn out in droves 

this election cycle. Again, the facts undermine their argument. In our 

analysis of early voting and absentee votes to date: The composition of the 

electorate has not changed significantly and most folks who have voted early 

are high propensity voters who would have voted regardless of the high 

interest in this campaign.

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a 

traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and 

Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral 

Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the 

final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win. The Final Barnstorm On 

Monday, we will have a 14 state rally with our candidates crisscrossing the 

country trying to turn out our voters and sway the final undecided voters. 

Governor Palin will hit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Alaska in 

the final day of campaigning, while Senator McCain will travel from Tampa, 

Florida, to Virginia, then Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and 

finish the night in Prescott, Arizona. The enthusiasm and excitement we 

generate on Monday will be the electricity that powers our "Get Out the 

Vote" efforts on Tuesday. On the Ground Our field organization has 

tremendous energy and is out-performing the Bush campaign at the same time 

in 2004. This week our field organization crossed a huge threshold and began 

reaching more than one million voters per day, and by week's end will have 

contacted more than 5 million voters. Our phone centers are full and our 

rate of voter contact is significantly out-pacing the Bush campaign in 2004. 

We have the resources to do the voter contact necessary to support the surge 

we are seeing in our polling with old fashioned grassroots outreach. On the 

Airwaves In the final days of the campaign, our television presence will be 

bigger and broader than the Obama campaign's presence. The full Republican 

effort - the RNC's Independent Expenditure and the McCain campaign will 

out-buy Barack Obama and the Democrats by just about 10 million dollars. In 

short: the McCain campaign is surging in the final 72 hours. Our grassroots 

campaign is vibrant and communicating to voters in a very powerful way. Our 

television presence is strong. And, we have a secret ingredient - A 

candidate who will never quit and who will never stop fighting for you and 

for your families. 

In these final hours, Senator McCain and Governor Palin are counting on you 

- they are counting on you to knock on doors, to make turnout calls, to 

contact your friends and neighbors. Get our voters to the polls and help 

John McCain fight for your and for our country. This is our last mission on 

behalf of John McCain and I have no doubt I can count on your effort and 

energy to carry us across the line to victory.

This election has become a crossroads for our county, a referendum on our 

way of life, our form of government.  There is still time to act now, spread 

the word, act now: engage, discuss, educate - and VOTE!